Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.166643 2.917308 3.961778 5.566969 8.058340e+00 1.193635e+01 1.877728e+01
2025-02-09 1.583380 2.465905 3.956519 6.852747 1.288246e+01 2.642405e+01 6.550026e+01
2025-02-16 1.139930 1.986649 3.658373 7.644241 1.866313e+01 5.576050e+01 2.647290e+02
2025-02-23 0.799503 1.516816 3.116652 7.643100 2.388169e+01 1.079130e+02 1.319684e+03
2025-03-02 0.565541 1.145679 2.571150 7.228496 2.844602e+01 2.022373e+02 1.145855e+04
2025-03-09 0.449654 0.977818 2.422859 8.012993 4.267192e+01 6.276487e+02 3.563403e+07
2025-03-16 0.361143 0.834398 2.257446 8.700164 6.368698e+01 2.568171e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.300853 0.736570 2.173957 9.836511 1.048433e+02 2.529911e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.252450 0.650019 2.074510 10.932987 1.749522e+02 2.634548e+06 NaN
2025-04-06 0.203237 0.539870 1.810497 10.556762 2.284468e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.163484 0.444140 1.544541 9.721428 2.697586e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.141155 0.396845 1.460083 10.390444 4.492883e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.125659 0.368934 1.460307 12.284460 1.087624e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.114007 0.350016 1.496984 15.200398 3.776791e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.100294 0.317617 1.435378 16.788878 1.166069e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.085682 0.276025 1.286557 16.337979 2.422834e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.072614 0.236253 1.121203 14.953141 3.786246e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.065496 0.218682 1.088524 16.591442 3.073403e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.059052 0.201606 1.046296 18.011779 1.112026e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.054199 0.189747 1.033009 20.567865 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.049726 0.177978 1.011276 23.065911 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.044103 0.159021 0.916675 21.916830 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.038858 0.140425 0.813071 19.725638 NaN NaN NaN